Success can be fleeting in sports. So often, we are told that a team is set to dominate for a long time, and within a relatively short period, the plot suddenly and dramatically changes. Take, for instance, the Boston Celtics. It was less than two years ago that this team, having won the 2024 NBA Championship, was hailed as historically strong. The headline on NBA.com in June 2024 was “Why 2023-24 Celtics are one of the best NBA teams ever.” Many opined that this 2024 championship would be the first of many.
Now in 2026, the Celtics are considered an above-average team, but not a great one. The title defense last season was relatively limp, and despite some bright spots this season, the team has been eliminated from the 2026 Playoffs. There are mitigating circumstances – injuries, trades, etc. – but the upshot is that talk of a dynasty was premature.
So, you can be forgiven for thinking that the team that supplanted the Celtics as champions in 2025, the Oklahoma City Thunder, could face a similar fate of being prematurely crowned as a dynasty, yet there are differences, not least the fact that this is a team that has been built organically from the ground up, and one that seems primed to contend for the long-term.
OKC well-placed to dominate for multiple seasons
Consider that while clearly the NBA’s best team, the OKC also has the third-youngest roster in the league this season. Those below them in age rank – the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards – are clearly rebuilding, whereas the OKC is already the complete package, albeit with room to grow as more players enter their peak.
Sometimes things are obvious in sports. The Thunder started the 2025/26 season as strong favorites for the NBA Championship. By the time we reached the postseason, DraftKings’ NBA Playoff game lines pointed to a red-hot favorite in every series so far. While there may be competition – San Antonio, New York, Detroit – everyone else is considered a betting outsider.
All eyes are drawn to the reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous Alexander. All great teams need a figurehead – think Jordan and the Bulls, Curry and the Warriors (the last NBA dynasty in our view) – so Gilgeous-Alexander is fulfilling that role for the Thunder. He’s mostly stayed healthy over the past four seasons, but even if he did get injured, there is evidence to support the idea that the Thunder would be okay. The team’s regular-season record without him over the past two seasons is 13-7.
The Celtics could be a cautionary tale
But should the Celtic’s demise – at least relative demise – act as a cautionary tale? Again, nobody truly knows. As mentioned earlier, the vast majority of experts were keen to say that Boston had no peers less than two years ago. Basketball, perhaps more than any other team sport, can suddenly see a team fall apart at the seams. It is, as Malcolm Gladwell points out a “strong-link” sport. That means that the team’s success is more heavily weighted on the performances of a few individuals than weak-link sports, such as soccer. The consequence of that is that a few key changes can transform a team’s outlook.
However, as it stands today, this is the best team in the NBA. Not only that, it is one of the best-placed to succeed in the future – a young team, no major contract headaches, and so on. So, while the OKC is on track to become a dynasty, a successful team that contends over multiple seasons, it’s still only the start of that journey. And we will only really be able to judge it in hindsight.
